2022-2024 Russia-Ukraine War and the International Security Environment Against the Background of the Threat of the Use of Nuclear Weapons: SWOT Analysis

Abstract

The 21st century has transformed the global arena with its new threats, challenges and complexities. International security faces more and more new threats and challenges. All this requires a timely response and taking effective measures by states, regional and international organizations. The stability of international security is weakened by ongoing wars, armed conflicts, pandemics, international terrorism, economic conflicts, asymmetric threats, non-state aggressive actors, and the climate change process. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war is a significant challenge for global security. Because, in case of critical damage as a result of the use of nuclear weapons or nuclear power plants, there will be a spread of radiation that has no borders. Open statements by Russian officials and nuclear threats are becoming more realistic as Russia’s nuclear doctrine changes. The change of the nuclear doctrine by Russia is an important message for the West and especially for Ukraine, because the target of the nuclear weapon strike will be the territory of Ukraine, which has to carry out certain military actions on the territory of Russia for the purpose of self-defense. As a result of the new doctrine, Russia can use nuclear weapons if an adversary against it or its ally Belarus, using conventional weapons, poses a critical threat to Russian sovereignty. Based on this, it is important to better study and analyze the issue. The aim of the paper is to present the impact of the current Russia-Ukraine war on international security policy, as well as to assess how plausible it is for Russia to use nuclear weapons. The research process used the method of policy analysis, content analysis, and SWOT analysis in the format of the common Russian-Ukrainian war processes. The theory of the balance of power, the theory of securitization, the theory of geostrategic balance, the theory of nuclear power, the theory of cooperative security are used in the research process.