Geopolitical Frustration and Hybrid Response: Empirical Capture of Russian Behavior after the Ukraine Crisis (2013-2021)

Abstract

The Ukraine crisis of 2013 was a major geopolitical disaster since the end of the Cold War, shattering the calm of the European security structure after the collapse of the USSR and triggering a harsh confrontation between Russia and the West. Moscow occupied Crimea after the Ukraine crisis, and the military conflict in the Donbas region has led to a serious humanitarian tragedy. The Ukraine crisis has a profound historical, ethnic and geopolitical background and needs to be put into the narrative framework of the game between the West and Russia in the Black Sea region. This article first constructs a frustration-response analysis framework and introduces two mediating variables of target expectation and target distance. Then it embeds theoretical elements in the interaction between Russia and Ukraine, including the entangled history, civilization and ethnic ties of the two countries. Finally, the article uses the captured (GDELT) data to conduct empirical measurement of Russia's behavior after the 2013 Euromaidan crisis, thereby providing enlightenment for foreign policy analysis and prediction of state behavior.