Security Strategies and the Role of External Actors in the South Caucasus: A Comparative Analysis of Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan

Abstract

This study examines the South Caucasus within the context of the strategic interests of global and regional powers, assessing how the agreement signed between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the United States in 2025, along with the evolving interdependence among external actors, creates a new strategic reality in the region. The relevance of the research is determined by the radical transformation of the regional secu­rity environment, the weakening of the Russia–Armenia strategic partnership, Azerbaijan’s growing in­de­pendence, challenges associated with energy and transit interests, and the increasing involvement of the United States, the European Union, Turkey, Iran, and China. These factors generate a multidimensional spect­rum of challenges that significantly affect the security policies of Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan.

The aim of the study is to analyze security strategies in the South Caucasus and to assess how the shifting interdependence of external actors, in the aftermath of the 2025 Armenia–Azerbaijan agreement signed in the United States, influences national security policies and the regional security architecture of Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan.

The theoretical framework is grounded in the theory of global interdependence, which explains how the interests and interactions of external actors shape the security policies and strategic decisions of regional states. The methodology combines qualitative analysis, document review, comparative assessment of data from international organizations, and an analysis of the dynamics of regional developments.

The novelty of the research lies in the systematic analysis of the new patterns of interdependence among external actors in the post-2025 period and the evaluation of their impact on the regional security structure. The findings demonstrate that multidimensional external competition is generating a new strategic reality, shaping the direction of future policies, and providing a more comprehensive and holistic understanding of the security dynamics in the South Caucasus.